Nonlinear Dynamic Research of Chinese Community Health Care-----a Delivery of Simulation and Prediction

Grey GM(1,1) model is one of the most commonused prediction method. A number of studies have shown that a series of significant achievement have been gained in natural science and social science for simulation and prediction of equidistant monitoring data sequent. However, relatively little is done about the application of Grey GM(1,1) model in relevant medical resources simulation and prediction for Chinese community health care. The aim of this study is to investigate the tendency of the numbers of China health service expenditure, health revenue, the number of visits and health personnel, which may provide the base and reference for the development of China health plan. Despite the great achievement associated with the use of grey GM(1,1) model, the prediction of nonequidistant and high growth data sequent through complex transformation , and usually has larger lagging error equidistant treatment of non-equidistant data may have larger lagging error. In this study, we built the GM(1,1) grey majorized model, which increases accuracy of background value and is proved successfully in simulation and prediction of equidistant or nonequidistant and low or high growth data. The results we obtained demonstrate that the nonlinear dynamic research of Chinese community health care using GM(1,1) grey majorized model, will contribute to the base and reference for the development of China health plan.